LAF: ruồi hút mật

[bean2000]

Thông tin này hơi bị hay. Mời bác tiếp tục thông tin

Đây là bản tin mới nhất về thị trường hạt điều gửi ngày 18/06/2011. Với mức giá tăng chóng mặt W320 lên đến 4.50-4.60 thì các bác tự tính Q. 2/ 2011 LAF lõm hay lãi to?


----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2011 2:26 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 18, 2011


JUNE 18, 2011

During week 25, price for W320 moved up another 2-3 percent – business was done in the range of 4.50 to 4.60 FOB (like in any firm market, some processors sold few cents higher). Differential for W240 came down to 25-30 cents. Discount for W450 narrowed to 10 cents with almost nothing available for nearbys. Discount for SW increased but not much available for nearbys. There was good demand for Brokens – Splits / Butts around 3.90 and Pieces around 3.80 FOB.

In Indian domestic market, prices for Splits & Pieces moved up another 5% during this week. Buying for wholes has also started in a small way with good premiums being obtained by a few processors.

RCN market also moved up – for good quality parcels. There is not much unsold volume of good quality in origins (except Bissau). Resale of good quality spot / afloat / under shipment parcels taking place at higher levels – around 1700 for Bissau, 1500-1550 for Benin and 1400-1450 for IVC/Ghana. At the same time, there are quite a few low quality parcels arrived recently in India which are offered at significant discount. Brazil is reported thave bought over 25,000mt – mainly in Ghana but some quantity in Guinea Bissau as well.

Kernel shipments have been lower than normal in the last 3-4 months – hopefully they will be normal from July but it will take few months of above normal shipments to replenish inventories. So, supply will continue to be tight for a few months.

Cashew prices have risen 100% since beginning of 2009 but this has been a sustained continuous rise with small periodic dips (except for a sudden 10% drop in the first quarter of 2010). Summary of price movements since 2008 :
2008 FH : 40% increase from 2.65 to 3.60
2008 SH : 35% drop from 3.60 top 2.30
2009 : 30% increase from 2.30 to 2.95
2010 : 30% increase from 2.95 to 3.80 (with a 10% drop from 2.90 to 2.65 in first quarter)
2011 : 20% increase from 3.80 to 4.60 (in six months)

Part of the increase is due to increase of 30-35% in processing costs (which account for 30 to 40% of kernel cost – depending on raw material cost). A larger portion is due to the increase in raw material cost and lower production vs steady or growing demand.

There is widespread concern that these high prices will have a long term impact on the usage of cashews in USA & Europe. We will have some idea of this by end of 2011 or first quarter of 2012. Also, if the 2011/12 crops are good that should improve the supply situation and provide some relief in raw material prices. Until one or both of this happen, the price trend will not be broken. When the trend changes, the decline will be gradual unless there is a big drop in demand in all markets (including Asia) which could mean a sudden decline in prices.

For the time being, it appears that the tight supply position coupled with regular periodic buying by some market or the other will keep the market firm.

Kindly share your views on market situation + demand & price trends + any other information / news


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]