LAF: ruồi hút mật

[bean2000]

[QUOTE=thuanphat;1389291]

Là sao? Bác có thể nói rõ hơn được không

Vào thời điểm đầu năm 2011, thị trường điều nhân rất yên ắng. Giá W320 ở thời điểm đó chỉ khoảng USD3.75/ Lb FOB

From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Monday, January 03, 2011 2:21 AM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JAN 1, 2011


Jan 1, 2011



Cashew market was extremely quiet in Week 52 (it has been fairly quiet for whole of December). Nobody seems to be in a mood to do anything substantial as outlook is uncertain. There is fair amount of interest for first quarter 2011 but buyers ideas are few cents lower than the limited offers in the market. Stray business reported W240 around 4.30, W320 around 3.75 FOB (few cents higher by some processors). Indian market – especially for brokens – is picking up in the last few days after a quiet period in the first half of December.

Entering 2011, it is worthwhile looking at some factors which will impact the market trend in the short and medium term.

Due to the short crops in 2010 (estimates of shortage in world production range from 7 to 15%), we are beginning the year with nearly empty pipeline. Processing in the first quarter will be lower than normal plus whatever seed will be processed in this period is very high priced. First few weeks will see implementation of wage increase in India (impact is about 30 cents per lb of kernels). Although we do not know details, we believe wages in Brazil & Vietnam are also going up early in the year. All this points to a firmer market in the first few months.

There was a steady increase in prices through 2010 - after a 10% decline from 2.90 to 2.60 in Jan/Feb, prices moved up 45% from 2.60 to 3.80 in ten months (most of the increase has been in last five months). In the growing Asian market, higher prices have been passed on to the consumer and there has been growth in consumption despite that. But in the traditional markets like North America & Europe, price increases have not been passed on in full (in some markets there have been no increases at all because of existing lower priced contracts for 2010). Impact of the higher prices will be known in first few months of 2011. Although there may not be much impact on base consumption, there will certainly be an impact on promotions, special offers, brands & retailers inclination to push product with better margins, etc. Close watch is required on the usage figures for first quarter and trend of roaster & retailer contracting in the first few months to get an idea of demand trend for 2011.

RCN cost outlook for 2011 is very uncertain – apart from the usual weather concerns, there are other factors which will affect RCN prices in 2011. Normally, prices open at high levels because quality is good (and also processors have some sales against which they can buy). After few weeks, prices soften (when arrivals peak) and then move up a bit at the end of the season as traders hold back product and processors try to stock till next crop. This year, since prices are already very high and forward sales are minimal, logically there should be less rush to buy at the beginning of the season but the fact that pipeline is empty may mean that traders and processors will buy some quantities even if there is no parity. Political situation in Ivory Coast adds to the uncertainty – there are fears of delayed movement (and maybe even reduced collection). In this calculation, we are not even thinking of the impact of even more uncertain external factors like economic situation & financial markets (which affect buying and risk taking ability), currency rates, etc.

As discussed in earlier reports, the trend of regular buying for few months forward means there is much lower volume traded for the next year – most buyers are covered for first quarter, few have cover for part of second quarter needs and almost nobody has cover for second half. In previous years, things were very different. The current situation is a double edged sword. If the trend of regular buying continues in first quarter, RCN season will open with strong buying interest and prices will not come down. This will mean higher costs through 2011 and we could touch the 4.00 level (or even cross it). On the other hand, if buying interest is low in the first quarter, we could see pressure on processors either to reduce prices to get sales on books before the 2011 crops start or at least wait for RCN prices to come down before making any large purchases. If this happens, we could see prices drifting towards the 3.50 level.

It is always difficult to judge how markets will move – in the current situation, cashew market is particularly difficult to read in view of (1) high prices (2) low inventories (3) higher processing costs (4) uncertain raw material costs (5) sea change in share of traditional and new markets (6) change in pattern of buying – more short term than long term. Flexibility of strategy and ability to move quickly are the keys to getting through these difficult times.

Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]