LAF: ruồi hút mật

[thuanphat]

[QUOTE=bean2000;1389270]

Tin này nói đúng cũng được mà không đúng cũng được

Là sao? Bác có thể nói rõ hơn được không

[bean2000]

[QUOTE=thuanphat;1389291]

Là sao? Bác có thể nói rõ hơn được không

Vào thời điểm đầu năm 2011, thị trường điều nhân rất yên ắng. Giá W320 ở thời điểm đó chỉ khoảng USD3.75/ Lb FOB

From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Monday, January 03, 2011 2:21 AM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JAN 1, 2011


Jan 1, 2011



Cashew market was extremely quiet in Week 52 (it has been fairly quiet for whole of December). Nobody seems to be in a mood to do anything substantial as outlook is uncertain. There is fair amount of interest for first quarter 2011 but buyers ideas are few cents lower than the limited offers in the market. Stray business reported W240 around 4.30, W320 around 3.75 FOB (few cents higher by some processors). Indian market – especially for brokens – is picking up in the last few days after a quiet period in the first half of December.

Entering 2011, it is worthwhile looking at some factors which will impact the market trend in the short and medium term.

Due to the short crops in 2010 (estimates of shortage in world production range from 7 to 15%), we are beginning the year with nearly empty pipeline. Processing in the first quarter will be lower than normal plus whatever seed will be processed in this period is very high priced. First few weeks will see implementation of wage increase in India (impact is about 30 cents per lb of kernels). Although we do not know details, we believe wages in Brazil & Vietnam are also going up early in the year. All this points to a firmer market in the first few months.

There was a steady increase in prices through 2010 - after a 10% decline from 2.90 to 2.60 in Jan/Feb, prices moved up 45% from 2.60 to 3.80 in ten months (most of the increase has been in last five months). In the growing Asian market, higher prices have been passed on to the consumer and there has been growth in consumption despite that. But in the traditional markets like North America & Europe, price increases have not been passed on in full (in some markets there have been no increases at all because of existing lower priced contracts for 2010). Impact of the higher prices will be known in first few months of 2011. Although there may not be much impact on base consumption, there will certainly be an impact on promotions, special offers, brands & retailers inclination to push product with better margins, etc. Close watch is required on the usage figures for first quarter and trend of roaster & retailer contracting in the first few months to get an idea of demand trend for 2011.

RCN cost outlook for 2011 is very uncertain – apart from the usual weather concerns, there are other factors which will affect RCN prices in 2011. Normally, prices open at high levels because quality is good (and also processors have some sales against which they can buy). After few weeks, prices soften (when arrivals peak) and then move up a bit at the end of the season as traders hold back product and processors try to stock till next crop. This year, since prices are already very high and forward sales are minimal, logically there should be less rush to buy at the beginning of the season but the fact that pipeline is empty may mean that traders and processors will buy some quantities even if there is no parity. Political situation in Ivory Coast adds to the uncertainty – there are fears of delayed movement (and maybe even reduced collection). In this calculation, we are not even thinking of the impact of even more uncertain external factors like economic situation & financial markets (which affect buying and risk taking ability), currency rates, etc.

As discussed in earlier reports, the trend of regular buying for few months forward means there is much lower volume traded for the next year – most buyers are covered for first quarter, few have cover for part of second quarter needs and almost nobody has cover for second half. In previous years, things were very different. The current situation is a double edged sword. If the trend of regular buying continues in first quarter, RCN season will open with strong buying interest and prices will not come down. This will mean higher costs through 2011 and we could touch the 4.00 level (or even cross it). On the other hand, if buying interest is low in the first quarter, we could see pressure on processors either to reduce prices to get sales on books before the 2011 crops start or at least wait for RCN prices to come down before making any large purchases. If this happens, we could see prices drifting towards the 3.50 level.

It is always difficult to judge how markets will move – in the current situation, cashew market is particularly difficult to read in view of (1) high prices (2) low inventories (3) higher processing costs (4) uncertain raw material costs (5) sea change in share of traditional and new markets (6) change in pattern of buying – more short term than long term. Flexibility of strategy and ability to move quickly are the keys to getting through these difficult times.

Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]

[bean2000]

Cho đến thời điểm ĐHCĐ, mặc dù giá nhân điều W320 đã tăng lên USD3.90-4.05 nhưng tại ĐH vẫn nhận định tình hình khó khăn do giá nguyên liệu đầu vụ giá cao

----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, March 20, 2011 1:58 AM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - MAR 19, 2011


MAR 19, 2011

Cashew prices continued to move up in Week 11 - during the week, business was done for W240 from 4.35 to 4.50 / W320 from 3.90 to 4.05 / Splits from 3.40 to 3.50 / Pieces from 3.20 to 3.30 FOB. In the last 2-3 weeks there has been a fair amount of activity for second quarter shipments with all major markets (one by one, not all at the same time). Indian market has been quiet for some time but activity expected to pick up in couple of weeks.

RCN market is steady. India & Vietnam local crops trading above US$ 2000. For African RCN, a wide range of prices being reported e.g. Benin from US$ 1525 to 1650, Ghana from 1425 to 1500, IVC from 1350 to 1450, Nigeria from 1275 to 1350 C&F India / Vietnam. Except for Nigeria, shipments from other origins have not started. Better / clearer picture of RCN prices will be available when actual shipments – good volume – start from the major origins. Despite the risk of sounding like a stuck record, we have to say that speed and timing of movement of IVC RCN will have major impact on RCN pricing and kernel availability in 2011.

There is nothing on the horizon to change the outlook – which continues to be hazy !!

On the supply side, RCN prices are unlikely to come down until flows are in full swing and shellers have replenished inventory (most processors in India & Vietnam are working partially since the last few weeks and some may have to shut operations for some time in April till they get shipments from Africa). A significant improvement in the supply situation is possible only if an efficient alternate route for IVC RCN is found.

On the demand side, there is considerable concern about impact of high prices on the usage of cashews – especially because prices of other nuts have eased from the peaks of 2010. If the demand comes down dramatically in USA & Europe, this may have an impact on demand & prices in Asia as well but if the decline is small, the Asian demand will probably take up the slack because the high prices of last six months have not had any negative impact on Asian demand (so far).

By Jun/Jul, we will have better idea of actual supply and costs of RCN plus kernel usage trends in the major markets. Depending on what happens in the next 3-4 months, we will see a new price range being established for the next few quarters. The new range might be lower than current levels (if RCN prices and kernel demand come down in the meantime) but will certainly be higher than the 2010 average.

Until then, the pattern of regular activity for nearbys will continue. This will support market around current levels UNLESS the buying in second quarter is very slow. A slow kernel market may induce some shellers come out with more offers as they would not like to keep buying RCN without making some kernel sales.

Your comments + views and any information + news would be appreciated


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]

[bean2000]

Cho đến cuối tuần rồi, giá nhân điều tiếp tục tăng mạnh. W320 đã tăng lên 4.30-4.40. Tính từ đầu năm, W320 đã tăng hơn 17% từ mức 3.75 lên 4.40

----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 12, 2011 9:44 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 11, 2011


JUNE 11, 2011

Cashew prices moved up another 10 cents or so (abt 2,50%) in Week 24 !!

During the week, business was done with several markets for W240 from 4.65 to 4.75 and W320 from 4.30 to 4.40 FOB (some processors were able to sell few cents higher). Good volume was traded for Jun/Jul and a fair amount was traded for Aug-Dec as well. Not much trade in other grades but values are W450 around 4.20, SW320 around 4.20, SW360 around 4.00-4.05, Splits/Butts around 3.90, Pieces around 3.75 FOB.

In the last ten days, Indian domestic market has moved up by about 5% - so far mainly on the broken grades. As discussed earlier, Aug-Dec is the peak consumption period and some traders are building up stocks in advance.

RCN market was steady with a firm undertone. Prices for good quality spot / afloat parcels moved up 100-150 dollars a ton, especially because quantities arrived /arriving in June are small. It is quite possible that prices may ease later if / when arrivals improve (quantity and / or quality). If the arrivals are staggered over a long period or if the kernel demand continues to be strong, decline may not be much. Many low quality parcels – lower total outturn and possibility of lower percentage of white grades - are available at a discount in India as well as in origin but processors are reluctant to buy.

Three weeks ago at the INC Budapest when some people were saying 320s could reach 4.50, very few people were willing to believe that (although everyone agreed that market would remain firm for some time).. But we are there now !!

The trend of the last few months – regular buying resulting in a gradual and sustained rise in prices – has taken prices to a scary level. Unless the supply improves significantly or there is a dramatic fall in demand, there is little chance of a break in the trend.

There is nothing new to add to what we have been saying in the last few reports about the prospects for coming weeks / months. Like Apr /May, kernel shipments in Jun/Jul will continue to be lower than normal – volumes may pick up after Aug but if the spot Asian demand is strong, there will be no pressure on shellers. Only chance for beginning of a decline in prices will be in the last quarter of the year if the Southern Hemisphere crops are good but even that decline may not be large unless there is a slowdown in nearby demand and forward contracting.

Until there is some clarity on supply & demand prospects for 2012, everybody will be inclined to operate for limited volumes to avoid being caught on the wrong foot when the trend changes (as all trends do). This increases the potential for volatility and makes life difficult for everyone in the chain !!

Would appreciate your comments on the current situation, views / forecast of demand + market trend and any other news + information

Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]
[/SIZE][/SIZE]

[hoanglong08]

Cho đến cuối tuần rồi, giá nhân điều tiếp tục tăng mạnh. W320 đã tăng lên 4.30-4.40. Tính từ đầu năm, W320 đã tăng hơn 17% từ mức 3.75 lên 4.40

----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 12, 2011 9:44 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 11, 2011


JUNE 11, 2011

Cashew prices moved up another 10 cents or so (abt 2,50%) in Week 24 !!

During the week, business was done with several markets for W240 from 4.65 to 4.75 and W320 from 4.30 to 4.40 FOB (some processors were able to sell few cents higher). Good volume was traded for Jun/Jul and a fair amount was traded for Aug-Dec as well. Not much trade in other grades but values are W450 around 4.20, SW320 around 4.20, SW360 around 4.00-4.05, Splits/Butts around 3.90, Pieces around 3.75 FOB.

In the last ten days, Indian domestic market has moved up by about 5% - so far mainly on the broken grades. As discussed earlier, Aug-Dec is the peak consumption period and some traders are building up stocks in advance.

RCN market was steady with a firm undertone. Prices for good quality spot / afloat parcels moved up 100-150 dollars a ton, especially because quantities arrived /arriving in June are small. It is quite possible that prices may ease later if / when arrivals improve (quantity and / or quality). If the arrivals are staggered over a long period or if the kernel demand continues to be strong, decline may not be much. Many low quality parcels – lower total outturn and possibility of lower percentage of white grades - are available at a discount in India as well as in origin but processors are reluctant to buy.

Three weeks ago at the INC Budapest when some people were saying 320s could reach 4.50, very few people were willing to believe that (although everyone agreed that market would remain firm for some time).. But we are there now !!

The trend of the last few months – regular buying resulting in a gradual and sustained rise in prices – has taken prices to a scary level. Unless the supply improves significantly or there is a dramatic fall in demand, there is little chance of a break in the trend.

There is nothing new to add to what we have been saying in the last few reports about the prospects for coming weeks / months. Like Apr /May, kernel shipments in Jun/Jul will continue to be lower than normal – volumes may pick up after Aug but if the spot Asian demand is strong, there will be no pressure on shellers. Only chance for beginning of a decline in prices will be in the last quarter of the year if the Southern Hemisphere crops are good but even that decline may not be large unless there is a slowdown in nearby demand and forward contracting.

Until there is some clarity on supply & demand prospects for 2012, everybody will be inclined to operate for limited volumes to avoid being caught on the wrong foot when the trend changes (as all trends do). This increases the potential for volatility and makes life difficult for everyone in the chain !!

Would appreciate your comments on the current situation, views / forecast of demand + market trend and any other news + information

Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]
[/SIZE][/SIZE]

Thông tin này hơi bị hay. Mời bác tiếp tục thông tin

[bean2000]

Thông tin này hơi bị hay. Mời bác tiếp tục thông tin

Đây là bản tin mới nhất về thị trường hạt điều gửi ngày 18/06/2011. Với mức giá tăng chóng mặt W320 lên đến 4.50-4.60 thì các bác tự tính Q. 2/ 2011 LAF lõm hay lãi to?


----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2011 2:26 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 18, 2011


JUNE 18, 2011

During week 25, price for W320 moved up another 2-3 percent – business was done in the range of 4.50 to 4.60 FOB (like in any firm market, some processors sold few cents higher). Differential for W240 came down to 25-30 cents. Discount for W450 narrowed to 10 cents with almost nothing available for nearbys. Discount for SW increased but not much available for nearbys. There was good demand for Brokens – Splits / Butts around 3.90 and Pieces around 3.80 FOB.

In Indian domestic market, prices for Splits & Pieces moved up another 5% during this week. Buying for wholes has also started in a small way with good premiums being obtained by a few processors.

RCN market also moved up – for good quality parcels. There is not much unsold volume of good quality in origins (except Bissau). Resale of good quality spot / afloat / under shipment parcels taking place at higher levels – around 1700 for Bissau, 1500-1550 for Benin and 1400-1450 for IVC/Ghana. At the same time, there are quite a few low quality parcels arrived recently in India which are offered at significant discount. Brazil is reported thave bought over 25,000mt – mainly in Ghana but some quantity in Guinea Bissau as well.

Kernel shipments have been lower than normal in the last 3-4 months – hopefully they will be normal from July but it will take few months of above normal shipments to replenish inventories. So, supply will continue to be tight for a few months.

Cashew prices have risen 100% since beginning of 2009 but this has been a sustained continuous rise with small periodic dips (except for a sudden 10% drop in the first quarter of 2010). Summary of price movements since 2008 :
2008 FH : 40% increase from 2.65 to 3.60
2008 SH : 35% drop from 3.60 top 2.30
2009 : 30% increase from 2.30 to 2.95
2010 : 30% increase from 2.95 to 3.80 (with a 10% drop from 2.90 to 2.65 in first quarter)
2011 : 20% increase from 3.80 to 4.60 (in six months)

Part of the increase is due to increase of 30-35% in processing costs (which account for 30 to 40% of kernel cost – depending on raw material cost). A larger portion is due to the increase in raw material cost and lower production vs steady or growing demand.

There is widespread concern that these high prices will have a long term impact on the usage of cashews in USA & Europe. We will have some idea of this by end of 2011 or first quarter of 2012. Also, if the 2011/12 crops are good that should improve the supply situation and provide some relief in raw material prices. Until one or both of this happen, the price trend will not be broken. When the trend changes, the decline will be gradual unless there is a big drop in demand in all markets (including Asia) which could mean a sudden decline in prices.

For the time being, it appears that the tight supply position coupled with regular periodic buying by some market or the other will keep the market firm.

Kindly share your views on market situation + demand & price trends + any other information / news


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]

[minhftu]

Đây là bản tin mới nhất về thị trường hạt điều gửi ngày 18/06/2011. Với mức giá tăng chóng mặt W320 lên đến 4.50-4.60 thì các bác tự tính Q. 2/ 2011 LAF lõm hay lãi to?

LN Q2 của LAF sẽ rất tốt vì 2 lý do: giá XK liên tục tăng và lãi suất vay của LAF chỉ khoảng 6%/năm do vay bằng USD.
Sắp tới sẽ có những chương trình phát triển và ưu đãi đặc biệt của Chính phủ dành cho 02 sản phẩm mà VN đứng số 1 TG về XK là hạt tiêu và hạt điều.
Cứ ôm và hưởng cổ tức là đã được hơn LS NH (trên 20%/năm) rồi.

[thuanphat]

Đây là bản tin mới nhất về thị trường hạt điều gửi ngày 18/06/2011. Với mức giá tăng chóng mặt W320 lên đến 4.50-4.60 thì các bác tự tính Q. 2/ 2011 LAF lõm hay lãi to?


----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2011 2:26 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 18, 2011


JUNE 18, 2011

During week 25, price for W320 moved up another 2-3 percent – business was done in the range of 4.50 to 4.60 FOB (like in any firm market, some processors sold few cents higher). Differential for W240 came down to 25-30 cents. Discount for W450 narrowed to 10 cents with almost nothing available for nearbys. Discount for SW increased but not much available for nearbys. There was good demand for Brokens – Splits / Butts around 3.90 and Pieces around 3.80 FOB.

In Indian domestic market, prices for Splits & Pieces moved up another 5% during this week. Buying for wholes has also started in a small way with good premiums being obtained by a few processors.

RCN market also moved up – for good quality parcels. There is not much unsold volume of good quality in origins (except Bissau). Resale of good quality spot / afloat / under shipment parcels taking place at higher levels – around 1700 for Bissau, 1500-1550 for Benin and 1400-1450 for IVC/Ghana. At the same time, there are quite a few low quality parcels arrived recently in India which are offered at significant discount. Brazil is reported thave bought over 25,000mt – mainly in Ghana but some quantity in Guinea Bissau as well.

Kernel shipments have been lower than normal in the last 3-4 months – hopefully they will be normal from July but it will take few months of above normal shipments to replenish inventories. So, supply will continue to be tight for a few months.

Cashew prices have risen 100% since beginning of 2009 but this has been a sustained continuous rise with small periodic dips (except for a sudden 10% drop in the first quarter of 2010). Summary of price movements since 2008 :
2008 FH : 40% increase from 2.65 to 3.60
2008 SH : 35% drop from 3.60 top 2.30
2009 : 30% increase from 2.30 to 2.95
2010 : 30% increase from 2.95 to 3.80 (with a 10% drop from 2.90 to 2.65 in first quarter)
2011 : 20% increase from 3.80 to 4.60 (in six months)

Part of the increase is due to increase of 30-35% in processing costs (which account for 30 to 40% of kernel cost – depending on raw material cost). A larger portion is due to the increase in raw material cost and lower production vs steady or growing demand.

There is widespread concern that these high prices will have a long term impact on the usage of cashews in USA & Europe. We will have some idea of this by end of 2011 or first quarter of 2012. Also, if the 2011/12 crops are good that should improve the supply situation and provide some relief in raw material prices. Until one or both of this happen, the price trend will not be broken. When the trend changes, the decline will be gradual unless there is a big drop in demand in all markets (including Asia) which could mean a sudden decline in prices.

For the time being, it appears that the tight supply position coupled with regular periodic buying by some market or the other will keep the market firm.

Kindly share your views on market situation + demand & price trends + any other information / news


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]

Những thông tin này có link không vậy bác