Trends … DRY BULK Market ... Trends
Sentiment turned again last week in the
dry bulk market and substantial gains
were logged across the board. In
particular the Capesize and Panamax
indices recorded increases of close to
15%. There was no clear reason for the
turnabout, although stems from Brazil
have started to pick up again and the
outlook looks good for April. Meanwhile in
the commodity markets, several trends
are emerging which may also give
shipowners renewed confidence. Flood
damage in Australia’s Queensland area is
now estimated to have taken around 15
million tonnes of coking coal out of the
market, prompting one analyst to speak of
a “supply apocalypse”. Meanwhile
Australia issued another set of strong
figures indicating it remains bullish for
2008. The Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics predicted the
country’s commodity sales would rise
30% in the year ending June 2009 - the
largest gain in thirty years.
Rates soared again in the Capesize
market last week as confidence returned
to the market. The Baltic Index rose 14%,
while the four timecharter average
jumped $20,000. Significant gains were
recorded in both the Atlantic and Pacific,
and rates continued to move upward at
the start of the new week. Several strong
period deals were again registered. A
169,000 dwt vessel in ballast ex-China
since 24 February was booked for threeto-
five months at US$140,000/day, while
one-year rates are now approaching the
US$150,000 level. Meanwhile there were
reports of a 170,000 dwt newbuilding ex-
Sungdong yard fixed for ten years at a firm
US$40,000/day net basis fourth-quarter
2009 delivery date.
The Baltic Panamax Index saw a period of
sustained increases last week, adding a
total of 954 points over the week to close
on Friday at 8,567. The four timecharter
average rose a hefty US$7,836, largely
influenced by increases in the Pacific
round voyage (up some US$11,440 over
the week). Confidence from short period
takers was unabated (also reflected in the
Panamax FFA market, most noticeably for
q2 levels), and short period in the Atlantic
was being traded on a modern type in the
low $80,000s, while one-year contracts
were being signed in the mid US$70,000s
in the Pacific for March delivery, which still
represents a big spread against the spot
market. In the Atlantic, anticipation of the
coming grain season added to the bullish
sentiment and rates rose a total of
US$4,770/day over the week. There is no
shortage of prompt tonnage in the Atlantic
and one wonders if the continued pace of
short period fixing can continue at such a
premium over the spot market.
Last week proved to be a repeat of the
previous week. Besides a firming in the
market, interest in short period also built up
and we are back to a scenario similar to
last year whereby one cargo is often
covered with a vessel fixed for short to
medium period. As a consequence,
Handymaxes are now being fixed at
around US$56,000 for 3/5 months while
Supramaxes are trading closer to mid-
US$60,000 for the same period. This
Dry Bulk Carriers Orderbook
obviously puts additional pressure on
tonnage whereby prompt cargoes compete
with one another and with period
requirements. Some charterers are rushing
to cover April requirements while other
owners are willing to bide their time.
S&P market:
With the continuing firming in the dry bulk
freight markets, buyers are becoming more
confident and we see an increasing
number of interested parties inspecting
vessels. As such we expect sales to rise
over the coming weeks and prices to firm.
That said, there were few sales to report
this week, and all involved modern
tonnage. The week was marked by the
sale of the Cape ‘Arethusa’ (172,000 dwt,
built 1991 in Korea) to Rizhao steel for
about US$133m with delivery in October
2008. In the Panamax sector we note the
sale of the ‘Nord Luna’ (73,000 dwt, built
2000 in Japan) which obtained a price of
US$73m from undisclosed buyers.
Meanwhile the Handymax ‘Snow
Falcon’ (50,000 dwt, built 2003 in Japan)
was committed for a price in the region of
US$65-66m, with some market sources
reporting a level closer to US$68m. Finally
a competition between some 12
prospective buyers saw the handysize
‘Ansac Orient’ (28,000dwt, built 1995 in
Japan) sold to Korean buyers for a price in
the region of US$39m.
Dry Bulk Carriers Orderbook
10/03/2008 (Source: BRS) NumberVẫn lên ầm ầm



Dry Bulk Carriers Orderbook
10/03/2008 (Source: BRS) Number of ships
2008
(deliv.)
2008* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013+
Total
on
order
VLOC 12 13 21 34 21 2 103
Capesize (4) 40 126 239 94 12 5 516
Small Cape (1) 17 48 99 83 19 266
Panamax (9) 89 96 149 81 18 2 435
Supramax (16) 177 262 286 168 40 2 935
Handysize (8) 129 208 185 116 29 667
Total (38) (464) (753) (979) (576) (139) (11) 2922

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