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Tình trạng khan hiếm tàu sẽ xuất hiện trong tương lai gần.







Source: Bloomberg
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Saturday, 30 August 2008








Shipbuilders will likely see new orders decline 40 percent this year as buyers can't get credit and slowing commodities demand, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.


Orders in the global shipbuilding industry will fall by a further 16 percent a year in 2009 and 2010, the Sydney-based bank said in a research.


Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. and Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co. reported order cancellations this month.


``We expect to see massive downward revisions on shipbuilders' earnings over the next 12-month period, driven by recent sharp increases in plate prices and other key raw material prices,'' analyst E.S. Kwak wrote. ``Companies are now guiding for margin declines until 2009-10.''



Steel plate prices have jumped more than 50 percent and gains in the dollar this year have caused shipyards to lose value on contract settlement after they'd hedged against declines, Kwak wrote. Newer shipbuilders will suffer the worst impact, Kwak said.



A vessel's price is fixed when the contract is signed, and raw material prices have jumped higher than expected, Macquaire said. Japanese shipbuilders have raised prices by as much as 50 percent to cover plate cost increases, the note said.




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Chủ tàu trên thế giới cũng như ở VN, đầu tư tàu cần vốn lớn và phải thu xếp được nguồn vốn để mua, đóng mới tàu. Với tình hình hiện nay việc thu xếp được tín dụng quả là khó khăn cho các chủ tàu biển, nên kết quả sẽ là nhiều đơn đặt hàng đóng mới tàu bị hủy, nhiều cty đóng tàu cũng bị kẹt vốn, giá cả sắt thép...tăng cao làm ảnh hưởng đến khả năng thực hiện hợp đồng nên "delay" giao tàu.[]