Dầu về 50$ thì PVD sẽ về 3x hố hố[:taydua]


Oil in Downtrend, May Fall to $50: Technical Analysis

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is in a downtrend that may
lead to prices falling as low as $50 a barrel, according to
Schork Group Inc.


“Oil has indeed entered a bear channel,” said Stephen
Schork, president of the Villanova, Pennsylvania-based
consultant. “The market gapped lower, therefore that gap - in
between $66.26 and $65.65 - is now the top of resistance.”


A decline of 12 percent since the start of last week has
pushed prices into a descending channel on the daily
continuation chart. It has also left a price gap between the low
of July 2 and the high of July 6 that will present a hurdle to
rising prices in the coming week, Schork said.


Oil reached an eight-month high of $73.38 a barrel on June
30 on speculation a recovery from the global recession will spur
demand for fuels, and following a surge in Brent on London’s ICE
Futures Europe exchange. Unauthorized trades at PVM Oil Futures
Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest broker of over-the-counter
oil derivatives, may have caused London oil prices to jump in
the early hours of June 30, according to exchange data.


New York oil futures have since fallen, into a sustained
descending channel. Prices are headed for a sixth day of decline
after closing yesterday below the 50-day moving average for the
first time in four months.


Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange is in its
longest losing streak since December. Oil for August delivery
declined 74 cents to $62.19 a barrel at 1:14 p.m. Singapore
time. Prices rose 41 percent in the three months to June, the
biggest quarterly gain since 1990, and increased 39 percent so
far this year.


Oil may fall to $50 a barrel only after breaking support
levels near $60, according to Schork.


“The market is clearly trending lower,” he said. The
support is in between the 50 percent and 62 percent retracements
ratio scale, from $61.25 to $58.59, he said.