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Giá hạt điều tuần 45 thế nào hả bác Bean2000 ?
Thanks.

Để tôi gửi tin theo trình tự thời gian để các bác tiện theo dõi. Dưới đây là bản tin ngày 27/08/2011

From: Pankaj Sampat [mailto[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, August 28, 2011 11:50 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - AUG 27, 2011


AUG 27, 2011

Cashew market has been very quiet during August – Week 35 was a continuation of that. Some Vietnam processors in Vietnam sold some volume few cents lower e.g. W320 from 4.40 to 4.45, Splits around 4.00, Pieces around 3.90 FOB. Large processors from Vietnam were quoting 5-10 cents higher. Offers from India were W240 around 4.90 / W320 from 4.55 to 4.65 / W450 around 4.50 / SW320 around 4.50 FOB. Some sales were made at these higher levels as well.

There was limited activity in the domestic market – mainly for good quality product even though prices are high. For FAQ, wholesalers are waiting for signals about retail offtake & fresh demand from the retailers before making further purchases from shellers.

There is almost zero activity in the RCN market – West Africa has very small unsold quantities. Some traders have product in Vietnam / India / afloat but do not seem to be in hurry to sell. Vietnam processors will probably buy after they have shipped the kernels sold recently. Large Indian processors may have adequate cover but small / medium processors will need to buy after Onam holidays.

Some buyers in USA & Europe have picked up the lower offers in the last two weeks whereas others have been watching from the sidelines to see how things develop. General feeling is that these two main markets need to cover for last quarter 2011 onwards – they are buying limited volume as required at regular intervals (regardless of price) and picking up stock when prices dip a bit. Until there is a clear picture of demand trend for next six months or some change on supply side, this buying pattern is likely to continue.

If the quiet period continues in Sep/Oct – either due to lower buying for next six months or due to external factors – kernel prices may drift lower and this could mean shellers will be cautious in buying RCN in Indonesia & East Africa. But if there is reasonable activity in the kernel market in Sep/Oct – which is what most people expect unless there is some dramatic negative development – kernel prices will remain in the current range. If that happens, shellers will be active in the RCN market and this will keep prices high since availability is limited. Except for small quantities from Indonesia, there will be no new crop RCN available for India / Vietnam processors till Nov/Dec. Pricing for Tanzania & Mozambique RCN will depend on (a) Government policies (b) currency movements (c) kernel activity in Sep/Oct.

Another factor to be watched – probably the most important for the next 2-3 months (apart from the external factors) – is how things develop in Brazil. If the crop is very good and RCN prices are reasonable, Brazil processors will come out to meet end 2011 / early 2012 requirements. If they are aggressive, kernel prices could drift by end of the year. If the crop is normal, it may not make much difference.

To sum up, Sep/Oct will be an interesting period. Developments & activity in (a) kernel market (b) Brazil / Indonesia / Africa crop & RCN pricing + movement (c) crops & prices of other nuts and (d) financial markets have to be watched closely to get a realistic idea of how cashew market will behave in the next six months.

Please advise your comments on market situation, views & forecast of demand + market trend and any other news or information



Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]