LAF: ruồi hút mật

[bean2000]

Cho đến thời điểm ĐHCĐ, mặc dù giá nhân điều W320 đã tăng lên USD3.90-4.05 nhưng tại ĐH vẫn nhận định tình hình khó khăn do giá nguyên liệu đầu vụ giá cao

----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, March 20, 2011 1:58 AM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - MAR 19, 2011


MAR 19, 2011

Cashew prices continued to move up in Week 11 - during the week, business was done for W240 from 4.35 to 4.50 / W320 from 3.90 to 4.05 / Splits from 3.40 to 3.50 / Pieces from 3.20 to 3.30 FOB. In the last 2-3 weeks there has been a fair amount of activity for second quarter shipments with all major markets (one by one, not all at the same time). Indian market has been quiet for some time but activity expected to pick up in couple of weeks.

RCN market is steady. India & Vietnam local crops trading above US$ 2000. For African RCN, a wide range of prices being reported e.g. Benin from US$ 1525 to 1650, Ghana from 1425 to 1500, IVC from 1350 to 1450, Nigeria from 1275 to 1350 C&F India / Vietnam. Except for Nigeria, shipments from other origins have not started. Better / clearer picture of RCN prices will be available when actual shipments – good volume – start from the major origins. Despite the risk of sounding like a stuck record, we have to say that speed and timing of movement of IVC RCN will have major impact on RCN pricing and kernel availability in 2011.

There is nothing on the horizon to change the outlook – which continues to be hazy !!

On the supply side, RCN prices are unlikely to come down until flows are in full swing and shellers have replenished inventory (most processors in India & Vietnam are working partially since the last few weeks and some may have to shut operations for some time in April till they get shipments from Africa). A significant improvement in the supply situation is possible only if an efficient alternate route for IVC RCN is found.

On the demand side, there is considerable concern about impact of high prices on the usage of cashews – especially because prices of other nuts have eased from the peaks of 2010. If the demand comes down dramatically in USA & Europe, this may have an impact on demand & prices in Asia as well but if the decline is small, the Asian demand will probably take up the slack because the high prices of last six months have not had any negative impact on Asian demand (so far).

By Jun/Jul, we will have better idea of actual supply and costs of RCN plus kernel usage trends in the major markets. Depending on what happens in the next 3-4 months, we will see a new price range being established for the next few quarters. The new range might be lower than current levels (if RCN prices and kernel demand come down in the meantime) but will certainly be higher than the 2010 average.

Until then, the pattern of regular activity for nearbys will continue. This will support market around current levels UNLESS the buying in second quarter is very slow. A slow kernel market may induce some shellers come out with more offers as they would not like to keep buying RCN without making some kernel sales.

Your comments + views and any information + news would be appreciated


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]

[bean2000]

Cho đến cuối tuần rồi, giá nhân điều tiếp tục tăng mạnh. W320 đã tăng lên 4.30-4.40. Tính từ đầu năm, W320 đã tăng hơn 17% từ mức 3.75 lên 4.40

----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 12, 2011 9:44 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 11, 2011


JUNE 11, 2011

Cashew prices moved up another 10 cents or so (abt 2,50%) in Week 24 !!

During the week, business was done with several markets for W240 from 4.65 to 4.75 and W320 from 4.30 to 4.40 FOB (some processors were able to sell few cents higher). Good volume was traded for Jun/Jul and a fair amount was traded for Aug-Dec as well. Not much trade in other grades but values are W450 around 4.20, SW320 around 4.20, SW360 around 4.00-4.05, Splits/Butts around 3.90, Pieces around 3.75 FOB.

In the last ten days, Indian domestic market has moved up by about 5% - so far mainly on the broken grades. As discussed earlier, Aug-Dec is the peak consumption period and some traders are building up stocks in advance.

RCN market was steady with a firm undertone. Prices for good quality spot / afloat parcels moved up 100-150 dollars a ton, especially because quantities arrived /arriving in June are small. It is quite possible that prices may ease later if / when arrivals improve (quantity and / or quality). If the arrivals are staggered over a long period or if the kernel demand continues to be strong, decline may not be much. Many low quality parcels – lower total outturn and possibility of lower percentage of white grades - are available at a discount in India as well as in origin but processors are reluctant to buy.

Three weeks ago at the INC Budapest when some people were saying 320s could reach 4.50, very few people were willing to believe that (although everyone agreed that market would remain firm for some time).. But we are there now !!

The trend of the last few months – regular buying resulting in a gradual and sustained rise in prices – has taken prices to a scary level. Unless the supply improves significantly or there is a dramatic fall in demand, there is little chance of a break in the trend.

There is nothing new to add to what we have been saying in the last few reports about the prospects for coming weeks / months. Like Apr /May, kernel shipments in Jun/Jul will continue to be lower than normal – volumes may pick up after Aug but if the spot Asian demand is strong, there will be no pressure on shellers. Only chance for beginning of a decline in prices will be in the last quarter of the year if the Southern Hemisphere crops are good but even that decline may not be large unless there is a slowdown in nearby demand and forward contracting.

Until there is some clarity on supply & demand prospects for 2012, everybody will be inclined to operate for limited volumes to avoid being caught on the wrong foot when the trend changes (as all trends do). This increases the potential for volatility and makes life difficult for everyone in the chain !!

Would appreciate your comments on the current situation, views / forecast of demand + market trend and any other news + information

Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]
[/SIZE][/SIZE]

[hoanglong08]

Cho đến cuối tuần rồi, giá nhân điều tiếp tục tăng mạnh. W320 đã tăng lên 4.30-4.40. Tính từ đầu năm, W320 đã tăng hơn 17% từ mức 3.75 lên 4.40

----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 12, 2011 9:44 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 11, 2011


JUNE 11, 2011

Cashew prices moved up another 10 cents or so (abt 2,50%) in Week 24 !!

During the week, business was done with several markets for W240 from 4.65 to 4.75 and W320 from 4.30 to 4.40 FOB (some processors were able to sell few cents higher). Good volume was traded for Jun/Jul and a fair amount was traded for Aug-Dec as well. Not much trade in other grades but values are W450 around 4.20, SW320 around 4.20, SW360 around 4.00-4.05, Splits/Butts around 3.90, Pieces around 3.75 FOB.

In the last ten days, Indian domestic market has moved up by about 5% - so far mainly on the broken grades. As discussed earlier, Aug-Dec is the peak consumption period and some traders are building up stocks in advance.

RCN market was steady with a firm undertone. Prices for good quality spot / afloat parcels moved up 100-150 dollars a ton, especially because quantities arrived /arriving in June are small. It is quite possible that prices may ease later if / when arrivals improve (quantity and / or quality). If the arrivals are staggered over a long period or if the kernel demand continues to be strong, decline may not be much. Many low quality parcels – lower total outturn and possibility of lower percentage of white grades - are available at a discount in India as well as in origin but processors are reluctant to buy.

Three weeks ago at the INC Budapest when some people were saying 320s could reach 4.50, very few people were willing to believe that (although everyone agreed that market would remain firm for some time).. But we are there now !!

The trend of the last few months – regular buying resulting in a gradual and sustained rise in prices – has taken prices to a scary level. Unless the supply improves significantly or there is a dramatic fall in demand, there is little chance of a break in the trend.

There is nothing new to add to what we have been saying in the last few reports about the prospects for coming weeks / months. Like Apr /May, kernel shipments in Jun/Jul will continue to be lower than normal – volumes may pick up after Aug but if the spot Asian demand is strong, there will be no pressure on shellers. Only chance for beginning of a decline in prices will be in the last quarter of the year if the Southern Hemisphere crops are good but even that decline may not be large unless there is a slowdown in nearby demand and forward contracting.

Until there is some clarity on supply & demand prospects for 2012, everybody will be inclined to operate for limited volumes to avoid being caught on the wrong foot when the trend changes (as all trends do). This increases the potential for volatility and makes life difficult for everyone in the chain !!

Would appreciate your comments on the current situation, views / forecast of demand + market trend and any other news + information

Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]
[/SIZE][/SIZE]

Thông tin này hơi bị hay. Mời bác tiếp tục thông tin

[bean2000]

Thông tin này hơi bị hay. Mời bác tiếp tục thông tin

Đây là bản tin mới nhất về thị trường hạt điều gửi ngày 18/06/2011. Với mức giá tăng chóng mặt W320 lên đến 4.50-4.60 thì các bác tự tính Q. 2/ 2011 LAF lõm hay lãi to?


----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2011 2:26 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 18, 2011


JUNE 18, 2011

During week 25, price for W320 moved up another 2-3 percent – business was done in the range of 4.50 to 4.60 FOB (like in any firm market, some processors sold few cents higher). Differential for W240 came down to 25-30 cents. Discount for W450 narrowed to 10 cents with almost nothing available for nearbys. Discount for SW increased but not much available for nearbys. There was good demand for Brokens – Splits / Butts around 3.90 and Pieces around 3.80 FOB.

In Indian domestic market, prices for Splits & Pieces moved up another 5% during this week. Buying for wholes has also started in a small way with good premiums being obtained by a few processors.

RCN market also moved up – for good quality parcels. There is not much unsold volume of good quality in origins (except Bissau). Resale of good quality spot / afloat / under shipment parcels taking place at higher levels – around 1700 for Bissau, 1500-1550 for Benin and 1400-1450 for IVC/Ghana. At the same time, there are quite a few low quality parcels arrived recently in India which are offered at significant discount. Brazil is reported thave bought over 25,000mt – mainly in Ghana but some quantity in Guinea Bissau as well.

Kernel shipments have been lower than normal in the last 3-4 months – hopefully they will be normal from July but it will take few months of above normal shipments to replenish inventories. So, supply will continue to be tight for a few months.

Cashew prices have risen 100% since beginning of 2009 but this has been a sustained continuous rise with small periodic dips (except for a sudden 10% drop in the first quarter of 2010). Summary of price movements since 2008 :
2008 FH : 40% increase from 2.65 to 3.60
2008 SH : 35% drop from 3.60 top 2.30
2009 : 30% increase from 2.30 to 2.95
2010 : 30% increase from 2.95 to 3.80 (with a 10% drop from 2.90 to 2.65 in first quarter)
2011 : 20% increase from 3.80 to 4.60 (in six months)

Part of the increase is due to increase of 30-35% in processing costs (which account for 30 to 40% of kernel cost – depending on raw material cost). A larger portion is due to the increase in raw material cost and lower production vs steady or growing demand.

There is widespread concern that these high prices will have a long term impact on the usage of cashews in USA & Europe. We will have some idea of this by end of 2011 or first quarter of 2012. Also, if the 2011/12 crops are good that should improve the supply situation and provide some relief in raw material prices. Until one or both of this happen, the price trend will not be broken. When the trend changes, the decline will be gradual unless there is a big drop in demand in all markets (including Asia) which could mean a sudden decline in prices.

For the time being, it appears that the tight supply position coupled with regular periodic buying by some market or the other will keep the market firm.

Kindly share your views on market situation + demand & price trends + any other information / news


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]

[minhftu]

Đây là bản tin mới nhất về thị trường hạt điều gửi ngày 18/06/2011. Với mức giá tăng chóng mặt W320 lên đến 4.50-4.60 thì các bác tự tính Q. 2/ 2011 LAF lõm hay lãi to?

LN Q2 của LAF sẽ rất tốt vì 2 lý do: giá XK liên tục tăng và lãi suất vay của LAF chỉ khoảng 6%/năm do vay bằng USD.
Sắp tới sẽ có những chương trình phát triển và ưu đãi đặc biệt của Chính phủ dành cho 02 sản phẩm mà VN đứng số 1 TG về XK là hạt tiêu và hạt điều.
Cứ ôm và hưởng cổ tức là đã được hơn LS NH (trên 20%/năm) rồi.

[hoanglong08]

LN Q2 của LAF sẽ rất tốt vì 2 lý do: giá XK liên tục tăng và lãi suất vay của LAF chỉ khoảng 6%/năm do vay bằng USD.
Sắp tới sẽ có những chương trình phát triển và ưu đãi đặc biệt của Chính phủ dành cho 02 sản phẩm mà VN đứng số 1 TG về XK là hạt tiêu và hạt điều.
Cứ ôm và hưởng cổ tức là đã được hơn LS NH (trên 20%/năm) rồi.

Bác nhìn chữ ký của Bác Ngai trong topic Dịch học và dự đoán thông tin thì biết LAF như thế nào

TNC và LAF: hãy mua vào trước khi thị trường ổn định

TNC lãi khủng bất chấp tình hình vĩ mô

TNC không vay nợ nên không sợ lãi suất tăng cao......... TNC lấy mủ tự nhiên bằng lao động chân tay không sợ giá dầu tăng cao.

Quí 1 không phải mùa kinh doanh chính nhưng eps của riêng quí 1 đã 2630, eps cả năm sẽ khủng thế nào khi TNC tiếp tục đưa thêm nông trường mới vào khai thác.


LAF quí 1 lãi khủng, eps 4 quí gần nhất = 9390, giá 1x rẻ chưa từng có trên TTCKVN.

[bean2000]

http://vinacas.com.vn/content/detail/id/1267

Trung Quốc Mua Nhân Điều Sơ Chế Nước Ta Với Giá Cao Kỷ Lục
22/06/2011 18:37:00
(Agroviet-21/06/2011) - Ngoài giá cao kỷ lục 7.000 USD/tấn, vấn đề đáng quan tâm nữa là thị trường đang xuất hiện một cách giao dịch hàng hóa khẩn cấp và trực tiếp giữa các đối tác.

Theo nguồn tin từ Bộ Công Thương, trong hơn 1 tuần qua, nhân điều sơ chế nước ta xuất khẩu qua cửa khẩu Móng Cái đạt 2 lô hàng, tổng số 63 tấn và với giá cao kỷ lục 45.000 NDT/tấn, tương đương 7.000 USD/tấn.

Giá điều xuất sang Trung Quốc tăng mạnh vì khách hàng có nhu cầu khẩn cấp đối với nông sản đặc sản này để kịp phục vụ yêu cầu của khách quốc tế đến du lịch. 2 lô hàng nói trên đã được các nhà hàng, khách sạn lớn ở Quảng Châu và Thâm Quyến đến cửa khẩu Đông Hưng – Móng Cái mua trực tiếp.

Như vậy có thể thấy, ngoài giá cao kỷ lục mà các doanh nghiệp nước ta đạt được như trên, vấn đề đáng quan tâm nữa là thị trường đang xuất hiện một cách giao dịch hàng hóa khẩn cấp và trực tiếp giữa các đối tác, có lợi cho cả hai bên.

Dự báo nhu cầu điều nhân sơ chế từ phía Trung Quốc sẽ tăng tiếp trong những tuần tới. Các chuyên gia quan sát thị trường cho rằng, doanh nghiệp nước ta cần phải nắm bắt thông tin kịp thời, những khi nào Trung Quốc gom mạnh, khi nào không có cầu, để kinh doanh đạt kết quả tốt nhất, giống như những ngày vừa qua.

[thuanphat]

Đây là bản tin mới nhất về thị trường hạt điều gửi ngày 18/06/2011. Với mức giá tăng chóng mặt W320 lên đến 4.50-4.60 thì các bác tự tính Q. 2/ 2011 LAF lõm hay lãi to?


----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2011 2:26 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 18, 2011


JUNE 18, 2011

During week 25, price for W320 moved up another 2-3 percent – business was done in the range of 4.50 to 4.60 FOB (like in any firm market, some processors sold few cents higher). Differential for W240 came down to 25-30 cents. Discount for W450 narrowed to 10 cents with almost nothing available for nearbys. Discount for SW increased but not much available for nearbys. There was good demand for Brokens – Splits / Butts around 3.90 and Pieces around 3.80 FOB.

In Indian domestic market, prices for Splits & Pieces moved up another 5% during this week. Buying for wholes has also started in a small way with good premiums being obtained by a few processors.

RCN market also moved up – for good quality parcels. There is not much unsold volume of good quality in origins (except Bissau). Resale of good quality spot / afloat / under shipment parcels taking place at higher levels – around 1700 for Bissau, 1500-1550 for Benin and 1400-1450 for IVC/Ghana. At the same time, there are quite a few low quality parcels arrived recently in India which are offered at significant discount. Brazil is reported thave bought over 25,000mt – mainly in Ghana but some quantity in Guinea Bissau as well.

Kernel shipments have been lower than normal in the last 3-4 months – hopefully they will be normal from July but it will take few months of above normal shipments to replenish inventories. So, supply will continue to be tight for a few months.

Cashew prices have risen 100% since beginning of 2009 but this has been a sustained continuous rise with small periodic dips (except for a sudden 10% drop in the first quarter of 2010). Summary of price movements since 2008 :
2008 FH : 40% increase from 2.65 to 3.60
2008 SH : 35% drop from 3.60 top 2.30
2009 : 30% increase from 2.30 to 2.95
2010 : 30% increase from 2.95 to 3.80 (with a 10% drop from 2.90 to 2.65 in first quarter)
2011 : 20% increase from 3.80 to 4.60 (in six months)

Part of the increase is due to increase of 30-35% in processing costs (which account for 30 to 40% of kernel cost – depending on raw material cost). A larger portion is due to the increase in raw material cost and lower production vs steady or growing demand.

There is widespread concern that these high prices will have a long term impact on the usage of cashews in USA & Europe. We will have some idea of this by end of 2011 or first quarter of 2012. Also, if the 2011/12 crops are good that should improve the supply situation and provide some relief in raw material prices. Until one or both of this happen, the price trend will not be broken. When the trend changes, the decline will be gradual unless there is a big drop in demand in all markets (including Asia) which could mean a sudden decline in prices.

For the time being, it appears that the tight supply position coupled with regular periodic buying by some market or the other will keep the market firm.

Kindly share your views on market situation + demand & price trends + any other information / news


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]

Những thông tin này có link không vậy bác

[bean2000]

Những thông tin này có link không vậy bác

Mr. Sampat làm ở Indiacommodities.com. Họ gủi Cashew Week mổi tuần. Nếu bác muốn kiểm chứng thì đã có đầy đủ thông tin bên dưới

Còn đây là bản tin tiếp theo


----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 26, 2011 2:09 AM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 25, 2011


JUNE 25, 2011

In week 26, cashew market was steady with a firm undertone. There was a fair amount of business in W320, W450, Splits, Pieces. Business was done for W240 around 4.80-85, W320 around 4.50-4.60, W450 around 4.45-4.50, Splits around 3.90-3.95, Pieces around 3.80-3.85 FOB. Some processors were selling few cents lower and some processors were able to sell few cents higher.

Indian domestic market is very firm – in the last three weeks, prices have moved up 10-12% for brokens and 5-6% for wholes. Availability for prompt deliveries is limited and this is adding to the firmness of the market. Normally, availability is better during Aug-Dec which is peak consumption period in India but this year supply will not be as comfortable because RCN flow is spread over a longer period + RCN imports are lower (Vietnam has been more aggressive and Brazil has taken a good quantity) + pipeline is empty.

RCN market is steady - GB around 1700, Senegal/Gambia around 1600, Benin around 1550 and IVC from 1350-1450 C&F. Arrivals into India are slow – transit times are about 8 weeks compared to the normal 4-5 weeks. Coupled with the delays in shipments from IVC, this means that processing in Apr-Jun has been much lower than normal.

Buyers seem to be reluctant to buy larger volumes for longer spreads as they are concerned about the impact of high prices on usage (so far the impact has not been much because currency movements are reducing the impact in some markets and some markets have absorbed the increase). At the back of the mind, there is probably also a concern about the precarious condition of the economy & financial markets.

The pattern of buying 2-3 months requirement at a time coupled with the tight supply position is keeping the market firm. Some market or the other is always buying – knowing this and since RCN shipments are coming in slowly, most shellers are not under pressure to sell even if markets goes quiet for a couple of weeks. At such times, some processors who need to keep selling regularly because they do not have forward sales (by choice or compulsion) sell few cents lower but such lower offers are quickly absorbed.

This trend of short term buying which provides support to the market will continue until (1) the supply improves significantly (which is unlikely in the short term - 2011 Southern and 2012 Northern crops have to be good to provide relief on supply side) or (2) there is a big drop in usage in last quarter & contracting for 2012 or (3) buyers cover a larger portion of their requirements for a longer time.

Overall, there is nothing on the horizon to clear the clouds - market outlook continues to be hazy and until we come to some tipping point, the market will continue to dip (buying opportunity) & spike (selling chance). Trend change will happen only when there is some big change in supply or demand (or some big external development).

Would appreciate your comments on market situation, your views on demand and market trend + any other news / information


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]

[lhv]

EPS 6 tháng của LAF không dưới 5k. Giá 16. Em tiếp tục mua thêm em này chờ đợi thời của LAF quay lại. Nếu thị trường giữ được giá điều như hiện nay hoặc thay đổi trong phạm vi 10% thì EPS 2011 của em nó ít nhất cũng tầm 8x rồi. Mua được với giá hiện nay cũng là nhờ thị trường xấu nên LAF không được quan tâm đúng mức.
So với nhiều cty khác thì LAF rõ là ổn định hơn cả.

[hatie]

bao giờ thị trường lên thì LAF mới lên được